Every recorded signal from SV's three engines, replayed
against real bars and run through real management rules. No sample data.
No marketing numbers.
Recomputed from recorded signal levels vs exchange bars ·
Aug 2024 – Oct 2026 · Costs/slippage excluded · Overlapping trades not
margin-modeled · S1 Full Runner is a ceiling benchmark — not an executable
strategy wherever it appears.
Data through Nov 1, 2026 · Last updated Nov 10, 2026 9:08 AM ET
How to read this page
Signal — one recorded alert with entry, stop (SL) and
target (TP) prices.
R — the trade's risk unit — the distance from entry to
stop. +2R means the trade made twice what it risked; R lets
different markets be compared fairly.
TP1/TP2/TP3 — the profit targets on a signal. How far
out they sit depends on the engine — Smart Crypto: ~1R, 2R, 3R ·
Hybrid AI: ~2R, 3R, 4R · Smart Forex: one target at 5R.
Funnel — of all signals, how many reached TP1 before
the stop, then TP2, then TP3.
Ladder — instead of selling everything at one target,
sell in pieces — a third at TP1, a third at TP2, the last third at
TP3 — banking profit progressively while a runner stays on.
S0 First Touch — everything exits at the first of stop
or TP1. The unmanaged baseline.
S1 Full Runner — nothing exits until TP3 or the stop.
A ceiling benchmark — the best the levels could have done, NOT an
executable strategy.
S2 Ladder — thirds at TP1/TP2/TP3, stop never moves.
S3 Ladder + Breakeven — after TP1, the stop moves to
the entry price — the rest of the trade can no longer lose.
S4 SV Ladder Lock — SV's own rule — after TP1, the stop
jumps to entry +10 points (futures; on crypto/forex, +20% of the
way to TP1), so a pullback to that lock exits everything left; the
goal is riding to TP3.
S5 Ladder + Ratchet — like S3, plus after TP2 the stop
moves up to the TP1 price — profits lock in steps.
S6 Half & Runner — half off at TP1, stop to
breakeven, the other half rides to TP3.
S4F/S5F (Hybrid AI only) — S4/S5 plus the Hybrid
Funding rule — everything flat by 4:10 PM ET.
Compounding vs Fixed $100 — compounding risks 0.4% of
the current balance each trade, so size grows and shrinks with the
account; fixed risks $100 per trade throughout — same trades,
flatter yardstick.
deepest-target total vs +2.0 R strict
first-touch — management is the strategy
1 · The funnels — what the signals actually did, in order
Smart Crypto · TP funnel
625 signals · BTC / ETH / SOL · 30-minute engine · 1-minute Binance bars · restated ex-XRP
Hit TP1 before stop
437 69.9%
Hit TP2 before stop
305 48.8%
Hit TP3 — full target
227 36.3%
Stopped before any TP
188 30.1%
Touched a take profit, then stopped anyway:
209 trades — the gap management rules exist to close.
Restated without the 61 XRPUSDT alerts — Smart Forex-template rows misfiled into this archive (single 5R target, no ladder). The original 686-signal funnel is in the §2 box; nothing was erased.
Touched a take profit, then stopped anyway:
42 trades — the gap management rules exist to close.
TP1 count includes 1 trade that touched TP1, never hit its stop, and timed out unresolved (outcome-resolved count: 108).
Smart Forex & Indices · TP funnel
1,734 signals · single recorded Take Profit at
exactly 5.0R · Aug 2024 – Oct 2026 · Dukascopy 1-minute bars ·
percentages of the 1,731 resolved signals
Hit the take profit before stop
377 21.8%
Stopped before target
1,354 78.2%
One target, no ladder: 1,728 of the 1,734 rows carry
a single Take Profit at exactly 5.0R, so a “win” means reaching +5R
before −1R (a driftless random walk manages ≈16.7%). Ambiguous bars:
4 (0.2%, resolved stop-first) · unresolved TIMEOUT:
3 · touched-TP-then-stopped:
0 — the sole target is the exit, so no runner exists
to give back. The only multi-target rows are 6 misfilled Hybrid AI
futures alerts (NQ1! / MNQ1!), graded and kept as their own rows.
Equity curves — all seven scenarios, 0.4% compounding (log scale)
S1 Full Runner is a ceiling benchmark — not an executable
strategy. The ladders (S2–S6) are the implementable comparisons.
Restated ex-XRP: every Smart Crypto figure in §1/§2/§4/§5 is the
625-signal native book; the as-first-published figures are in the box
at the end of this card.
S0 — First Touch (everything out at stop or TP1) — $67,203S1 — Full Runner (rides everything to TP3 or the stop) — ceiling benchmark — $537,804S2 — Ladder, no stop move (thirds at TP1/TP2/TP3, stop never moves) — $73,497S3 — Ladder + Breakeven (thirds off; after TP1 the stop moves to entry) — $84,342S4 — SV Ladder Lock (thirds off at each target; after TP1 the stop locks +10) — $84,546S5 — Ladder + Ratchet (thirds off; stop steps up after TP1 and TP2) — $84,699S6 — Half & Runner (half off at TP1, rest rides to TP3) — $81,405
Scenario
Total R
Expectancy / trade
Trades net-positive
Final — 0.4% compounding
Final — fixed $100 risk
Max drawdown $
S0 — First Touch (everything out at stop or TP1)
+249.0 R
+0.398 R
69.9%
$67,203.46
$49,900.00
-$1,210.61
S1 — Full Runner (rides everything to TP3 or the stop) ceiling benchmark — not an executable strategy
+780.1 R
+1.248 R
69.9%
$537,803.94
$103,009.24
-$6,653.84
S2 — Ladder, no stop move (thirds at TP1/TP2/TP3, stop never moves)
+274.7 R
+0.440 R
48.8%
$73,497.49
$52,469.75
-$1,871.77
S3 — Ladder + Breakeven (thirds off; after TP1 the stop moves to entry)
+308.0 R
+0.493 R
69.9%
$84,342.39
$55,800.00
-$1,564.06
S4 — SV Ladder Lock (thirds off at each target; after TP1 the stop locks +10)
+308.5 R
+0.494 R
69.9%
$84,546.33
$55,846.67
-$1,541.58
S5 — Ladder + Ratchet (thirds off; stop steps up after TP1 and TP2)
+308.7 R
+0.494 R
69.9%
$84,699.27
$55,866.67
-$1,519.35
S6 — Half & Runner (half off at TP1, rest rides to TP3)
+299.0 R
+0.478 R
69.9%
$81,404.95
$54,900.00
-$1,485.11
Balance matrix — what the same % looks like
at every account size
Compounding — risk = 0.4% of current account
Start
S0
S1 (ceiling)
S2
S3
S4
S5
S6
$1,000
$2,688
$21,512
$2,940
$3,374
$3,382
$3,388
$3,256
$10,000
$26,881
$215,122
$29,399
$33,737
$33,819
$33,880
$32,562
$25,000
$67,203
$537,804
$73,497
$84,342
$84,546
$84,699
$81,405
$100,000
$268,814
$2,151,216
$293,990
$337,370
$338,185
$338,797
$325,620
$1,000,000
$2,688,139
$21,512,158
$2,939,899
$3,373,695
$3,381,853
$3,387,971
$3,256,198
Fixed risk — 0.4% of starting balance, never resized
Start
S0
S1 (ceiling)
S2
S3
S4
S5
S6
$1,000
$1,996
$4,120
$2,099
$2,232
$2,234
$2,235
$2,196
$10,000
$19,960
$41,204
$20,988
$22,320
$22,339
$22,347
$21,960
$25,000
$49,900
$103,009
$52,470
$55,800
$55,847
$55,867
$54,900
$100,000
$199,600
$412,037
$209,879
$223,200
$223,387
$223,467
$219,600
$1,000,000
$1,996,000
$4,120,370
$2,098,790
$2,232,000
$2,233,867
$2,234,667
$2,196,000
Same percentage result at every size — risk is a % of
the account, so growth scales linearly. Real accounts face min-lot and
margin limits not modeled here.
As first
published, including 61 misfiled Smart Forex-template XRP alerts:
win rate 65.4% · full target 33.1% ·
stopped 34.6% over 686 signals · scenario finals
at 0.4% compounding — S0 $69,954 ·
S1 $559,691 (ceiling) ·
S2 $76,498 ·
S3 $87,778 ·
S4 $87,995 ·
S5 $88,168 ·
S6 $84,717 · total R — S0
+260.0 R · S5 +319.7 R.
Restated above without them. The 61 rows are Smart Forex-template
alerts (single 5.0R target, no TP ladder) filed into the wrong
archive — see xrp_diagnostic.md.
Two ways to grade the same 1,734 signals — $25,000 account
Strict first-touch totals +528.0 R and
deepest-TP booking +530.0 R over 1,731 resolved
signals — near-identical, because with a single 5R target there is
almost nothing for the exit convention to change.
S0 — First Touch (everything out at stop or TP1) — $129,389S1 — Full Runner (rides everything to TP3 or the stop) — ceiling benchmark — $130,440S2 — Ladder, no stop move (thirds at TP1/TP2/TP3, stop never moves) — $129,915S3 — Ladder + Breakeven (thirds off; after TP1 the stop moves to entry) — $129,915S4 — SV Ladder Lock (thirds off at each target; after TP1 the stop locks +10) — $129,915S5 — Ladder + Ratchet (thirds off; stop steps up after TP1 and TP2) — $129,915S6 — Half & Runner (half off at TP1, rest rides to TP3) — $129,914
Scenario
Total R
Expectancy / trade
Trades net-positive
Final — 0.4% compounding
Final — fixed $100 risk
Max drawdown $
S0 — First Touch (everything out at stop or TP1)
+445.9 R
+0.257 R
21.8%
$129,388.71
$69,591.36
-$37,243.47
S1 — Full Runner (rides everything to TP3 or the stop) ceiling benchmark — not an executable strategy
+447.9 R
+0.258 R
21.8%
$130,440.23
$69,791.27
-$37,546.14
S2 — Ladder, no stop move (thirds at TP1/TP2/TP3, stop never moves)
+446.9 R
+0.258 R
21.8%
$129,914.55
$69,691.33
-$37,394.82
S3 — Ladder + Breakeven (thirds off; after TP1 the stop moves to entry)
+446.9 R
+0.258 R
21.8%
$129,914.55
$69,691.33
-$37,394.82
S4 — SV Ladder Lock (thirds off at each target; after TP1 the stop locks +10)
+446.9 R
+0.258 R
21.8%
$129,914.55
$69,691.33
-$37,394.82
S5 — Ladder + Ratchet (thirds off; stop steps up after TP1 and TP2)
+446.9 R
+0.258 R
21.8%
$129,914.55
$69,691.33
-$37,394.82
S6 — Half & Runner (half off at TP1, rest rides to TP3)
+446.9 R
+0.258 R
21.8%
$129,914.47
$69,691.32
-$37,394.80
Convergence: all seven scenarios are
identical on the 1,728 genuine single-target trades — with one 5R
target there is nothing to ladder; the only divergence in the archive
is one misfilled three-TP futures alert. The small S1/S2–S6 deltas
above come entirely from those 6 misfilled rows.
Artifact caveat: scenario totals include
−82.1 R from 3 TIMEOUT trades exited at the 10-day deadline close;
two are gap-through cases where a live stop would have filled near
the gap open. Replay resolved-only total: +528 R.
Venue caveat: recorded NAS100/US30 levels
sit ~+0.06–0.09% above Dukascopy cash CFD at signal time — index
outcomes are the softest third of this book.
Balance matrix — what the same % looks like
at every account size
Compounding — risk = 0.4% of current account
Start
S0
S1 (ceiling)
S2
S3
S4
S5
S6
$1,000
$5,176
$5,218
$5,197
$5,197
$5,197
$5,197
$5,197
$10,000
$51,755
$52,176
$51,966
$51,966
$51,966
$51,966
$51,966
$25,000
$129,389
$130,440
$129,915
$129,915
$129,915
$129,915
$129,914
$100,000
$517,555
$521,761
$519,658
$519,658
$519,658
$519,658
$519,658
$1,000,000
$5,175,549
$5,217,609
$5,196,582
$5,196,582
$5,196,582
$5,196,582
$5,196,579
Fixed risk — 0.4% of starting balance, never resized
Start
S0
S1 (ceiling)
S2
S3
S4
S5
S6
$1,000
$2,784
$2,792
$2,788
$2,788
$2,788
$2,788
$2,788
$10,000
$27,837
$27,917
$27,877
$27,877
$27,877
$27,877
$27,877
$25,000
$69,591
$69,791
$69,691
$69,691
$69,691
$69,691
$69,691
$100,000
$278,365
$279,165
$278,765
$278,765
$278,765
$278,765
$278,765
$1,000,000
$2,783,655
$2,791,651
$2,787,653
$2,787,653
$2,787,653
$2,787,653
$2,787,653
Same percentage result at every size — risk is a % of
the account, so growth scales linearly. Real accounts face min-lot and
margin limits not modeled here.
3 · Hybrid AI — the edge is after TP1
Two ways to grade the same 323 signals — $25,000 account
Strict first-touch (out at TP1 or the stop) totals
+2.0 R across 322 booked trades — breakeven by
construction at 2R targets. Booking the deepest target reached totals
+155.0 R. Everything between those lines is exit management.
Artifact caveat: S0's total includes
+19.6 R from a single artifact trade (Sep 16, 2024): a spike bar
jumped clean over TP1 and TP2, so the position was held to the
10-day deadline close. Excluding it, S0 = +2.0 R. All other
scenarios manage the same trade through their exit rules.
Literal position ledger —
fixed 3 MNQ contracts, 1 per ladder unit, $2/pt per contract, no
resizing (S6 halves are scaled at the same $6/pt and are not literally
executable at 3 contracts)
Scenario
3-MNQ total P&L
3-MNQ final balance
3-MNQ max drawdown
S2 — Ladder, no stop move (thirds at TP1/TP2/TP3, stop never moves)
-$5,044.94
$19,955.06
-$9,916.42
S3 — Ladder + Breakeven (thirds off; after TP1 the stop moves to entry)
-$3,030.60
$21,969.40
-$9,555.12
S4 — SV Ladder Lock (thirds off at each target; after TP1 the stop locks +10)
-$4,174.14
$20,825.86
-$9,553.92
S5 — Ladder + Ratchet (thirds off; stop steps up after TP1 and TP2)
-$1,595.70
$23,404.30
-$9,188.90
S6 — Half & Runner (half off at TP1, rest rides to TP3)
Headline scenarios only (S1 ceiling excluded), restated ex-XRP (625 signals). The $25,000 curves are rescaled ×4 — under %-risk sizing the growth path scales linearly with the starting balance. * = partial year; exact spans are labeled in the tables.
S0 — First Touch (everything out at stop or TP1)S4 — SV Ladder Lock (thirds off at each target; after TP1 the stop locks +10)S5 — Ladder + Ratchet (thirds off; stop steps up after TP1 and TP2)
S0 — First Touch (everything out at stop or TP1)
Year
Balance — start of year
Balance — end of year
Growth
Trades closed
Win rate
2024 — Aug–Dec · PARTIAL
$100,000.00
$113,104.86
+13.1%
93
66.7%
2025 — Full year
$113,104.86
$162,399.67
+43.6%
189
74.1%
2026 — Jan–Oct · PARTIAL
$162,399.67
$268,813.85
+65.5%
343
68.5%
Total +168.8% · annualized
+58.8% over 2.14 yrs
(Aug 2024 – Oct 2026) · final balance
$268,813.85
S4 — SV Ladder Lock (thirds off at each target; after TP1 the stop locks +10)
Year
Balance — start of year
Balance — end of year
Growth
Trades closed
Win rate
2024 — Aug–Dec · PARTIAL
$100,000.00
$115,245.80
+15.2%
93
66.7%
2025 — Full year
$115,245.80
$186,443.93
+61.8%
189
74.1%
2026 — Jan–Oct · PARTIAL
$186,443.93
$338,185.30
+81.4%
343
68.5%
Total +238.2% · annualized
+76.8% over 2.14 yrs
(Aug 2024 – Oct 2026) · final balance
$338,185.30
S5 — Ladder + Ratchet (thirds off; stop steps up after TP1 and TP2)
Year
Balance — start of year
Balance — end of year
Growth
Trades closed
Win rate
2024 — Aug–Dec · PARTIAL
$100,000.00
$115,044.55
+15.0%
93
66.7%
2025 — Full year
$115,044.55
$184,258.60
+60.2%
189
74.1%
2026 — Jan–Oct · PARTIAL
$184,258.60
$338,797.09
+83.9%
343
68.5%
Total +238.8% · annualized
+77.0% over 2.14 yrs
(Aug 2024 – Oct 2026) · final balance
$338,797.09
Hybrid AI — annual performance, $100,000 account
Headline scenarios only (S1 ceiling excluded), futures-graded signals. The $25,000 curves are rescaled ×4 — under %-risk sizing the growth path scales linearly with the starting balance. * = partial year; exact spans are labeled in the tables.
S0 — First Touch (everything out at stop or TP1)S4 — SV Ladder Lock (thirds off at each target; after TP1 the stop locks +10)S5 — Ladder + Ratchet (thirds off; stop steps up after TP1 and TP2)S5F — Ladder + Ratchet + 4:10 PM flat-by (S5 rules + flat by 4:10 PM ET)
S0 — First Touch (everything out at stop or TP1)
Year
Balance — start of year
Balance — end of year
Growth
Trades closed
Win rate
2024 — Aug–Dec · PARTIAL
$100,000.00
$100,650.52
+0.7%
196
30.6%
2025 — Full year
$100,650.52
$102,986.94
+2.3%
57
36.8%
2026 — Jan–Oct · PARTIAL
$102,986.94
$108,698.74
+5.5%
70
40.0%
Total +8.7% · annualized
+3.9% over 2.19 yrs
(Aug 2024 – Oct 2026) · final balance
$108,698.74
S4 — SV Ladder Lock (thirds off at each target; after TP1 the stop locks +10)
Year
Balance — start of year
Balance — end of year
Growth
Trades closed
Win rate
2024 — Aug–Dec · PARTIAL
$100,000.00
$95,440.55
-4.6%
196
30.6%
2025 — Full year
$95,440.55
$95,956.05
+0.5%
57
36.8%
2026 — Jan–Oct · PARTIAL
$95,956.05
$103,547.36
+7.9%
70
40.0%
Total +3.5% · annualized
+1.6% over 2.19 yrs
(Aug 2024 – Oct 2026) · final balance
$103,547.36
S5 — Ladder + Ratchet (thirds off; stop steps up after TP1 and TP2)
Year
Balance — start of year
Balance — end of year
Growth
Trades closed
Win rate
2024 — Aug–Dec · PARTIAL
$100,000.00
$97,552.44
-2.4%
196
30.6%
2025 — Full year
$97,552.44
$98,490.98
+1.0%
57
36.8%
2026 — Jan–Oct · PARTIAL
$98,490.98
$107,443.71
+9.1%
70
40.0%
Total +7.4% · annualized
+3.3% over 2.19 yrs
(Aug 2024 – Oct 2026) · final balance
$107,443.71
Headline scenario S0 only — all seven scenarios converge on the single recorded 5R target (see the Smart Forex scenario card), so one line carries the book. The $25,000 curves are rescaled ×4 — under %-risk sizing the growth path scales linearly with the starting balance. * = partial year; exact spans are labeled in the tables.
S0 — First Touch (everything out at stop or TP1)
S0 — First Touch (everything out at stop or TP1)
Year
Balance — start of year
Balance — end of year
Growth
Trades closed
Win rate
2024 — Aug–Dec · PARTIAL
$100,000.00
$164,417.98
+64.4%
395
24.8%
2025 — Full year
$164,417.98
$366,922.07
+123.2%
608
22.5%
2026 — Jan–Oct · PARTIAL
$366,922.07
$517,554.86
+41.1%
731
19.6%
Total +417.6% · annualized
+110.9% over 2.20 yrs
(Aug 2024 – Oct 2026) · final balance
$517,554.86
5 · Deep metrics
Smart Crypto — deep metrics
Restated ex-XRP (625 signals; the per-symbol table drops XRP — see the §2 box). Best implementable scenario = highest total R with the S1 ceiling excluded. R consistency = mean ÷ stdev of per-trade R. Timing stats are replay-level (scenario-independent).
Metric
S0 — First Touch (everything out at stop or TP1)
S5 — Ladder + Ratchet (thirds off; stop steps up after TP1 and TP2) (best implementable)
Profit factor (R)
2.32
2.64
Avg win (R)
+1.00 R
+1.14 R
Avg loss (R)
-1.00 R
-1.00 R
Largest win (R)
+1.00 R
+2.00 R
Largest loss (R)
-1.00 R
-1.00 R
R consistency
0.434
0.430
Longest win streak 16 · longest loss streak 5 (S5 — Ladder + Ratchet (thirds off; stop steps up after TP1 and TP2), by exit order) · best month 2026-06 (+43.0 R) · worst month 2025-08 (-2.0 R) Median time to outcome 314.5 min · resolved within 1 hour 16.0% · within 1 day 80.1% (of 624 resolved signals, replay-graded)
Per symbol — S5 — Ladder + Ratchet (thirds off; stop steps up after TP1 and TP2)
Symbol
Trades
Total R
Win rate
ETHUSDT
231
+152.0 R
77.9%
BTCUSDT
272
+122.7 R
67.3%
SOLUSDT
122
+34.0 R
60.7%
Monthly R — S5 — Ladder + Ratchet (thirds off; stop steps up after TP1 and TP2)
Futures-graded headline signals only. Best implementable scenario = highest total R with the S1 ceiling excluded. R consistency = mean ÷ stdev of per-trade R. Timing stats are replay-level (scenario-independent). Artifact caveat: S0's largest win (+19.55 R) is a single artifact trade (Sep 16, 2024) — a spike bar jumped clean over TP1 and TP2, so the position was held to the 10-day deadline close; excluding it, S0 totals +2.0 R.
Scenario figures are S0 — First Touch (everything out at stop or TP1); all seven
scenarios converge on the single recorded target, so S0 carries the
book. R consistency = mean ÷ stdev of per-trade R. Per-symbol and
by-year expectancy are replay-level (deepest-TP booking, resolved
signals).
Metric
S0 — First Touch (everything out at stop or TP1)
Profit factor (R)
1.31
Avg win (R)
+4.98 R
Avg loss (R)
-1.06 R
Largest win (R)
+5.00 R
Largest loss (R)
-56.91 R
R consistency
0.089
Longest win streak 8 · longest
loss streak 42 (S0, by exit order) · best month
2026-04 (+113.0 R) · worst month
2026-02 (-54.4 R)
Median time to outcome 45.9 min ·
resolved within 1 hour 55.7% · within 1 day
95.6% (of 1,731 resolved
signals, replay-graded) Expectancy is decaying by year:+0.490 R (2024, n=394) → +0.344 R (2025, n=607) → +0.175 R (2026, n=730) — the per-trade
edge thins every year even as signal volume grows.
Per symbol — replay
(deepest-TP booking)
Symbol
Signals
Win rate
Expectancy
Total R
NAS100USD
517
24.4%
+0.462 R
+239.0 R
US30USD
550
23.5%
+0.407 R
+224.0 R
USDJPY
191
19.4%
+0.162 R
+31.0 R
EURUSD
91
20.9%
+0.253 R
+23.0 R
AUDUSD
102
19.6%
+0.176 R
+18.0 R
XAUUSD
59
18.6%
+0.119 R
+7.0 R
USDCAD
30
20.0%
+0.200 R
+6.0 R
NQ1!
4
25.0%
+0.250 R
+1.0 R
MNQ1!
2
0.0%
-1.000 R
-2.0 R
GBPUSD
185
15.1%
-0.092 R
-17.0 R
GBPUSD is the only losing genuine Smart Forex symbol
(−0.092 R expectancy). The negative NQ1! / MNQ1! rows are the 6
misfilled Hybrid AI futures alerts, kept visible as their own rows.
Index rows (NAS100USD / US30USD — the bulk of the book) carry the
venue caveat from the scenario card: recorded levels sit
~+0.06–0.09% above Dukascopy cash CFD, so index outcomes are the
softest third.
Smart Crypto — BTCUSDT BUY · Aug 25, 2024 · full target
Entry 64,336.83 → TP3
64,981.65 · booked +3.00 R ·
1-minute Binance candles, signal to exit
Hybrid AI — NQ SELL · Aug 27, 2024 · touched profit, still stopped
TP1 touched at 07:03 ET, then price
reversed and hit the stop at 07:32 ET. The signal did its
job — whether this trade made or lost money was decided entirely by the
exit rule. 1-minute NQ candles, signal to exit
7 · Auto Hybrid AI — the fill book, reconstructed
Reconstructed
trade-by-trade from 1,536 recorded strategy fills
(Aug 2024 – Nov 2026) — Model A applies SV's close-on-opposite execution
semantics. Not broker statements. The archive itself is incomplete: the
flow log drops fills (proven against the strategy's own stated
positions), so era-level error bars apply — widest in Aug 2024.
Model A — close-on-opposite (the book SV's executor would have run)
Recorded fills at recorded quantities, in dollars.
This is not an R-multiple scenario simulation, and it is deliberately
kept out of the $100,000 annual section and the balance matrices
above — those model signal rules; this is a fill book. No commissions,
slippage or fees modeled.
Model A cumulative realized P&L — -$112,587.00
Closed trades — Model A
790
NQ + MNQ · Aug 2024 – Oct 2026 (by exit)
Win rate
56.8%
449 winners / 340 losers
Total realized P&L
-$112,587.00
net negative — presented straight
Profit factor
0.782
gross wins ÷ gross losses · below 1.0 loses money
Average win
+$897.07
per winning trade
Average loss
-$1,515.80
per losing trade — losses run 1.7× the wins
Max drawdown
-$119,139.00
cumulative $, closed trades in exit order
Longest streaks
11 W / 11 L
consecutive wins / consecutive losses
By exit year — the bleed shrinks every
year; it never reaches breakeven
Year
Trades
Win rate
Total $
Profit factor
2024
100
60.0%
-$94,663.00
0.433
2025
299
56.9%
-$10,522.00
0.924
2026
391
56.0%
-$7,402.00
0.965
Profit factor by year:
0.43 → 0.92 →
0.96 — each year loses less than the one
before, and 2026 still closes under water.
By instrument
Instrument
Trades
Win rate
Total $
Profit factor
NQ
103
62.1%
-$69,975.00
0.578
MNQ
687
56.0%
-$42,612.00
0.878
NQ dollars are the deep wound (full $20/pt size on
the 2024 cohort); MNQ points were actually positive — the dollars
still lost because the average loss outweighs the average win.
The Apex
line: 436 contracts of oversize opposite-fill quantity
were closed-only, never reversed — the Apex failure mode, measured. On
the Apex auto-trader that excess flipped the account into a new
position; under Model A it is discarded at the close, exactly as SV
specified.
Reference — Model B, strategy-native accounting
Accounting
Total $
Reading
Model B — always-in-market (reversals open the next leg)
-$399,179.14
Its post-Nov-2025
portion is an artifact of missing buy fills in the log (a phantom
short that never flattens), not the strategy's book. Its fully
validated 2024 era: -$53,163.01 on
149 trades.
Still open at the archive end, excluded from every
total above: MNQ SHORT 4 @
28,648.00 (opened Nov
1, 2026) — no unrealized P&L is
booked anywhere on this page.
H250 — the
$250 hard-stop scenario (SV's spec, Nov 10, 2026). A flat $250
maximum loss per position at the recorded quantities, replacing the
recorded exit if price reaches −$250 first; stop distance =
$250 ÷ (qty × $/pt), fixed at entry. Hypothetical overlay on the
recorded fills — same bar data and caveats as the cap study above.
Gate: with the stop disabled, the harness reproduced Model A exactly
(790 trades, -$112,587.00) under both methods
before any H250 number counted.
H250-A — overlay (headline): what the $250 stop does to the book
The average loss is the story SV asked about:
baseline -$1,515.80 per losing trade becomes
-$278.22 — the stop does its job on the
loss column. The cost is the win rate: at the recorded quantities
$250 is 6–31 points, inside 1-minute noise, so the stop also fires
on most would-be winners. The book stays negative.
Model A baseline (recorded exits)H250-A — $250 hard stop (overlay)
Total realized P&L — H250-A
-$37,833.42
vs -$112,587.00 baseline · still negative
Profit factor — H250-A
0.741
vs 0.782 baseline
Win rate — H250-A
22.0%
vs 56.8% baseline — most trades are stopped before they can work
Average win — H250-A
+$733.18
vs +$897.07 baseline
Average loss — H250-A
-$278.22
vs -$1,515.80 baseline — losses cut to under a fifth
Max drawdown — H250-A
-$42,121.40
vs -$119,139.00 baseline
Positions killed by the stop
521
of 613 positions · the rest kept their recorded exits
Winners killed
226
recorded winning positions that touched −$250 first
H250-A by entry year
Entry year
Trades
Win rate
Total $
Profit factor
2024
79
12.7%
-$10,640.00
0.459
2025
265
24.2%
-$23,627.46
0.563
2026
330
22.4%
-$3,565.96
0.951
Subset honesty: on the 2025–2026 LITE-era
cut, H250-A totals -$27,193.42 over
595 trades — worse than the same cut with no
stop (−$13,848.00, PF 0.96). The full-window improvement comes from
truncating 2024's catastrophic tail; in the cleaner era the stop is
a drag, exactly as the cap studies found.
Gap-through: 48 trade rows still
lost more than $250 — 46 are gap-through kills (a bar
opened beyond the stop; the exit books at the open, per the rule
used across this study) and the other
2 are recorded-price vs bar-series
divergences documented in killswitch_h250_summary.md. A clean
(non-gap) kill never exceeds −$250 on its own row.
Method B (stateful replay, reference):
-$36,700.81 total · PF 0.869 ·
win rate 19.3% · avg win
+$1,003.76 · avg loss
-$275.48 · 1,007 kills
(188 mapped to recorded winning positions) over
1,257 replayed legs. Same conclusion as Method A: the
average loss collapses to ~$275, the book still does not cross
zero.